Donald Trump’s pledge to ensure that all Bitcoin mining happens in the United States has captured headlines, marking a bold campaign promise aimed at cementing American dominance in the cryptocurrency sector. However, experts suggest the promise is more symbolic than practical, given the decentralized nature of blockchain technology and the global landscape of crypto mining.

In a social media post last June, Trump vowed to make Bitcoin “Made in the USA” after meeting with executives from leading crypto mining companies at his Mar-a-Lago resort. This marks a dramatic shift for Trump, who transitioned from being a crypto skeptic to one of the industry’s staunchest allies.

Industry insiders, however, view Trump’s promise as highly unlikely to materialize. Blockchain’s decentralized structure means no single country can control or restrict the network. The global scale of crypto mining, with operations spanning Russia, China, Africa, and the Middle East, adds another layer of complexity. Currently, less than half of the total computing power on the Bitcoin network originates from the US.

US-based crypto miners like CleanSpark Inc. and Riot Platforms Inc. welcomed Trump’s support, hoping for relaxed environmental regulations and reduced overseas competition. Trump’s pro-crypto stance has already generated $135 million in campaign contributions, solidifying his reputation as an ally of the industry.

Despite the boom in US-based mining, countries with lower energy costs and weaker currencies are quickly gaining traction in the Bitcoin mining race. Hydro-powered hubs in Ethiopia and inflation-stricken economies like Argentina offer miners higher profit margins. Meanwhile, China, despite its 2021 ban on mining, is witnessing a resurgence, and Russian operators are scaling up under a softened regulatory stance.

Many US miners are also expanding abroad. MARA Holdings Inc., the largest US miner by market cap, recently partnered with Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund to build one of the region’s largest mining farms.

Yet Trump’s promise could create additional challenges for US miners. A trade war with China might increase the cost of mining hardware, nearly all of which is manufactured by Chinese companies like Bitmain. Rising energy costs in states like Texas could also hamper the industry’s growth.

While Trump’s vision underscores his commitment to American innovation, achieving dominance in the decentralized and fiercely competitive world of Bitcoin mining remains an uphill battle.