The crypto market is experiencing a high-stakes event as $10.31 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options contracts expire today. This significant expiration event could influence short-term price movements, especially as both cryptocurrencies have recently experienced fluctuations.

Bitcoin options make up the bulk of today’s expiry, with contracts valued at $8.36 billion, while Ethereum options account for $1.94 billion. The impact of such a large-scale expiration is expected to be substantial, with traders closely monitoring price action.

According to Deribit data, today’s expiration sees 80,179 Bitcoin contracts and 603,426 Ethereum contracts reaching maturity. These figures represent a notable increase compared to last week’s expiry, which saw only 30,645 BTC and 173,830 ETH contracts expire. The surge in expiring options suggests heightened market activity and potential volatility.

Bitcoin’s max pain price, the level where most options would expire worthless, stands at $98,000. For Ethereum, this level is set at $3,300. With BTC currently trading above its max pain level and ETH below, traders expect market forces to push prices toward these levels. The put-to-call ratio for Bitcoin is 0.68, while Ethereum’s is 0.43, both indicating a generally bullish sentiment. However, options expirations often lead to short-term market turbulence, as traders adjust their positions.

Market participants are bracing for potential liquidations and trend shifts over the weekend. Analysts note that when large amounts of options expire, price swings tend to follow as traders reposition their portfolios. One popular analyst on X, known as Crypto Dad, warned that today’s expiration could bring heightened volatility.

“This could bring significant market volatility as traders reposition ahead of expiry. Expect sharp price movements and potential liquidations,” he stated.

The market reaction is already visible, with Bitcoin’s trading price dipping 0.64% to $104,299, while Ethereum has seen a modest 1.04% increase, now sitting at $3,226. With these movements, BTC remains well above its max pain price, whereas ETH is trading below its designated level.

Max pain theory suggests that option sellers, often large institutions, influence the market to drive prices toward the level where most options expire worthless. This is because option writers, or market makers, hedge their positions to maintain balance in their portfolios. As contracts reach expiry, they adjust their hedging strategies, impacting the price movement of the underlying assets.

A market analyst on X highlighted this by stating, “Traders often monitor this level as it can influence price movements as expiration approaches.” This means that traders are watching closely to see if BTC and ETH prices gravitate toward their respective max pain levels.

Despite the potential turbulence, history suggests that markets tend to stabilize shortly after major options expirations. Traders and investors will now focus on how today’s high-volume expiration influences crypto market trends heading into the weekend.