The crypto market saw renewed optimism as XRP and Bitcoin surged over the weekend, riding a wave of bullish momentum driven by institutional interest and regulatory tailwinds. The XRP-spot ETF narrative gained significant strength after the U.S. SEC decided to withdraw its appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling—a move that has been widely interpreted as a green light for future ETF approval.

Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, now shows an 86% probability of XRP ETF approval by December 2025, up from 77% following Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse’s recent statements. This sentiment shift is also evident in the improving odds of approval in the first half of 2025, climbing from 33% to 46%. With issuers like Bitwise, Grayscale, WisdomTree, and Franklin Templeton in the pipeline, the market is clearly anticipating a formal nod long before the final October 2025 deadline.

The potential approval of an XRP-spot ETF is seen as a game-changer. Drawing parallels to Bitcoin’s recent ETF rally, XRP could replicate BTC’s explosive move leading up to its record high. Historically, BTC’s ETF-driven rally ahead of Trump’s election win fueled a 51% climb, eventually helping it peak at $109,312. For XRP, this trajectory could mean a return to its 2018 all-time high of $3.5505—provided regulatory uncertainty is resolved.

But legal clarity remains key. Ripple’s ongoing cross-appeal strategy looms large in the backdrop. A favorable settlement could drive XRP well past $3.55. On the flip side, prolonged legal ambiguity might pull XRP below the $2 threshold, especially as macroeconomic risks like U.S. recession fears and global trade tensions add volatility to the equation.

As of March 23, XRP climbed 2.95% to close at $2.4410, outperforming the broader crypto market, which posted a 2.1% gain. The total market cap now stands at $2.76 trillion, and XRP is playing a crucial role in driving that momentum.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has reasserted its dominance, surging past the $86,000 mark. BTC closed Sunday at $86,117, up 2.74% and reversing its minor dip from Saturday. The recent uptrend is backed by strong inflows into BTC-spot ETFs, now extending to a six-day streak—the longest since January. This renewed institutional interest comes amid the reintroduction of the Bitcoin Act by Senator Cynthia Lummis.

If passed, the Bitcoin Act would authorize the U.S. government to acquire one million BTC over five years, holding them for a minimum of 20 years as part of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR). This bold initiative could spark a significant wave of institutional adoption and long-term price support.

Bitcoin’s price path will depend on multiple variables. In a bearish scenario, trade tensions, political resistance to the Bitcoin Act, or ETF outflows could pull BTC down toward $70,000. But a bullish scenario—driven by legislative success, strong macroeconomic indicators, and sustained ETF inflows—could see BTC retesting its all-time high around $109,312.

Looking ahead, several critical factors will shape the market. A settlement in Ripple’s case would likely fuel broader crypto sentiment, while macro risks like changing U.S. tariff policies could tilt the Federal Reserve toward a more hawkish stance, putting pressure on asset prices. At the same time, developments in ETF flows and legislative efforts like the Bitcoin Act will serve as real-time indicators of institutional confidence in digital assets.

Despite the SEC’s softened stance, long-term investor sentiment will still depend on broader regulatory clarity and economic stability. But for now, both XRP and BTC are enjoying their moment in the sun, with the market closely watching what comes next.